ACRE Statistics Report

2020 General Election, Volusia County, FL

AuditEngine version:'v2.32.X'

Run Date: 2026-11-10 22:51:50.183206 Copyright (c) Citizens' Oversight


Run Parameters & Characteristics

Parameter Value Description
acre_mode contest-based style Stratification granularity
random_seed 42
include_writeins False Write-in-used counted as its own coverage stratum
include_uncontested_contests False
rla_risk_percent 5% Risk limit used for the RLA sample-size column
selection_order confirmed Strata processed smallest-to-largest by size; one ballot chosen at random (weighted toward unseen contest-based style/batchid) within each stratum
swaps_coverage_phase2 False ACRE design doc Phase 2 (Swaps Coverage) run as its own selection pass
total_ballots_selected 937 After tiering-driven pruning -- see review_tiers_rounds below
total_ballots_bmd 80 Of which BMD
total_ballots_hand_marked 857 Of which hand-marked
total_ballots_with_writein 8 Selected ballots that happen to carry a write-in
total_ballots_if_writeins_required 996
total_ballots_if_writeins_not_required 937
total_strata 5665 Worst-case ballots needed with one sample per votable option and no cascade coverage at all
sample_pct_of_worst_case 16.5% total_ballots_selected / total_strata -- how much cascade coverage (one ballot covering many contests at once) saved versus the one-sample-per-option worst case
review_tiers_rounds 27 tiers / 4 rounds See Review Tiers section -- same ballots as total_ballots_selected, grouped by review priority, not a separate sample
total_contests_in_eif 67
contests_uncontested 0 Every listed option would win regardless (vote_for >= num listed options)
contests_contested 67
contests_included_in_coverage 67
within_contest_swap_coverage_pct 100.0% 91 of 91 same-contest option pairs covered -- both members individually selected somewhere in the sample
adjacent_yesno_swap_coverage_pct 100.0% 34 of 34 same-label pairs (Yes vs. Yes, No vs. No) across adjacent Yes/No contests, where a selected ballot shows the two answers differing
max_rla_n 4195 Largest single-contest RLA sample size needed (risk limit 5%) among contests with a nonzero margin

Review Tiers

Ballots are grouped into review-priority rounds.

Round 1 alone covers every contest option, undervote, overvote, and write-in-used check, on at least one contest-based style. That's enough to catch an error affecting every style.

Later rounds add coverage of the remaining contest-based style variants.

A reviewer can stop after any round once that round's coverage guarantee is met, or split rounds across reviewers.

Rounds are not a separate sample. They relabel the same selected ballots used everywhere else in this report.

Round Ballots in round Cumulative ballots Votes Added (Hand-Marked) Votes Added (BMD)
1 137 137 1697 756
2 365 502 2238 449
3 314 816 403 0
4 121 937 122 0

(27 raw coverage tiers combined into 4 rounds of ~300 ballots each -- see tier_round_target_size.)

Raw Tier Distribution

Rounds above bundle these finer-grained raw tiers into a simpler presentation layer. See compute_acre_tiers() for how tiers are computed.

Contest-based styles this tier: how many distinct contest-based styles this tier's picks touched. This count varies enormously by election. A small jurisdiction might have a dozen total contest-based styles. A large county can have several hundred. Use this count, not raw ballot counts, to compare this run's shape against a different election's.

Dominant contest(s): the contest with the most explicit picks in that tier (ties listed together). A contest with many style variants naturally dominates the tiers right before its coverage runs out. That's why the long tail often shows one or two contests repeating across several tiers in a row. This is expected, not a bug or an unusually large sample.

Votable options covered % and Strata coverage %: running totals through the end of that tier. See the chart below for the full-resolution shape.

Tier Round Contest-based styles this tier Ballots this tier Cumulative ballots Critical this tier Dominant contest(s) Dominant contest picks Votable options covered % Strata coverage %
1 1 46 137 137 137 President and Vice President 8 100.0 43.3
2 2 47 190 327 190 President and Vice President 11 100.0 79.5
3 2 42 102 429 102 President and Vice President 9 100.0 87.7
4 2 37 73 502 73 President and Vice President 9 100.0 90.7
5 3 27 51 553 51 President and Vice President 7 100.0 92.5
6 3 27 41 594 41 President and Vice President 7 100.0 93.5
7 3 26 35 629 35 President and Vice President 7 100.0 94.2
8 3 22 34 663 34 President and Vice President 7 100.0 94.9
9 3 23 32 695 32 President and Vice President 7 100.0 95.6
10 3 21 28 723 28 President and Vice President 7 100.0 96.1
11 3 18 26 749 26 President and Vice President 7 100.0 96.6
12 3 20 25 774 25 President and Vice President 7 100.0 97.1
13 3 15 21 795 21 President and Vice President 7 100.0 97.5
14 3 15 21 816 21 President and Vice President 7 100.0 97.8
15 4 17 20 836 20 President and Vice President 7 100.0 98.2
16 4 16 19 855 19 President and Vice President 7 100.0 98.5
17 4 12 17 872 17 President and Vice President 7 100.0 98.8
18 4 12 16 888 16 President and Vice President 7 100.0 99.1
19 4 11 12 900 12 President and Vice President 6 100.0 99.3
20 4 9 10 910 10 President and Vice President 5 100.0 99.5
21 4 7 8 918 8 President and Vice President 4 100.0 99.7
22 4 6 6 924 6 President and Vice President 3 100.0 99.8
23 4 4 4 928 4 President and Vice President 3 100.0 99.8
24 4 3 3 931 3 President and Vice President 3 100.0 99.9
25 4 2 2 933 2 President and Vice President 2 100.0 99.9
26 4 2 2 935 2 President and Vice President 2 100.0 100.0
27 4 2 2 937 2 President and Vice President 2 100.0 100.0

Coverage vs. Ballots

Two set-cover progress curves share the same x-axis: cumulative ballots selected, at full per-pick resolution, not just one point per tier.

Votable options covered % tracks every contest option, undervote, overvote, and write-in-used check, seen on at least one contest-based style. It ramps up fast across Tier 1's picks, since Tier 1 samples the rarest contest-based style/option first, then sits flat at 100%. That's why Round 1 alone is disproportionately valuable.

Strata coverage % only reaches 100% once every contest-based style variant of every votable option has also been verified. It climbs more slowly, across the remaining tiers and rounds.

Each point on the strata curve is labeled with its tier number, matching the Raw Tier Distribution table above.

Both curves show general set-cover progress. They are not specific to any one contest or election, so this shape is what to expect when comparing across different elections' runs.

Full per-pick data, not just tier-end snapshots, is in acre_coverage_curve.csv for building your own visualization.

Contest Coverage

Contest Margin (votes) Margin (%) RLA n Round reaching RLA n BMD ballots BMD contest-based styles BMD primary picks BMD write-ins Non-BMD ballots Non-BMD contest-based styles Non-BMD primary picks Non-BMD write-ins
President and Vice President 45545 14.61 20 1 74 29 24 0 836 48 240 2
Representative in Congress District 6 55274 18.36 16 1 74 29 3 1 836 48 37 6
State Attorney 7th Judicial Circuit 65878 23.05 13 1 74 29 4 0 836 48 27 0
State Senator District 7 11455 10.85 28 1 44 15 2 0 404 24 12 1
State Senator District 9 7342 26.25 11 1 7 4 0 0 104 5 3 0
State Representative District 24 6277 33.85 8 1 7 3 0 0 78 5 0 0
State Representative District 25 30418 28.26 10 1 22 9 1 0 279 13 9 0
State Representative District 26 5143 6.16 50 2 33 11 1 0 274 20 7 0
State Representative District 27 11710 13.10 23 1 12 6 0 0 205 10 8 0
Supreme Court - Carlos G. Muniz 98577 38.01 8 1 74 29 8 0 836 48 26 0
5th Dist Crt of Appeal - Evander 119038 46.47 7 1 74 29 5 0 836 48 22 0
5th Dist Crt of Appeal - Grosshans 103922 40.83 8 1 74 29 0 0 836 48 19 0
5th Dist Crt of Appeal - Harris 120319 47.22 7 1 74 29 0 0 836 48 25 0
5th Dist Crt of Appeal - Orfinger 118745 46.57 7 1 74 29 2 0 836 48 18 0
5th Dist Crt of Appeal - Sasso 110302 43.94 7 1 74 29 1 0 836 48 18 0
5th Dist Crt of Appeal - Wallis 112775 44.83 7 1 74 29 1 0 836 48 11 0
Circuit Judge 7th Judicial, Group 14 38389 15.00 23 1 74 29 3 0 836 48 30 0
County Council Chair 40657 15.29 22 1 74 29 0 0 836 48 27 0
County Council Member District 2 664 1.37 262 20 6 0 0 158 9 4 0
County Council Member District 4 9071 17.07 20 1 21 9 1 0 254 17 6 0
School Board Member District 2 8497 19.15 18 1 25 6 0 0 164 10 1 0
Soil & Water Conservation Seat 2 111038 45.35 7 1 74 29 4 0 836 48 19 0
Soil & Water Conservation Seat 4 46199 18.38 19 1 74 29 2 0 836 48 19 0
WVHA - Group A, Seat 3 14161 13.79 25 1 25 11 0 0 303 16 3 0
WVHA - Group B, Seat 1 26589 26.28 13 1 25 11 0 0 303 16 4 0
City Commissioner Zone 2 Daytona Beach 950 23.04 14 2 1 1 0 0 34 2 1 0
City Commissioner Zone 4 Daytona Beach 1489 19.38 17 2 3 2 0 0 41 4 0 0
DeBary Council Seat 1 970 8.57 42 3 1 0 0 28 1 1 0
DeBary Council Seat 2 2027 17.64 19 3 3 1 0 0 28 1 1 0
Deltona Commissioner District 4 1089 17.32 19 1 1 0 0 16 1 0 0
Deltona Commissioner District 6 1649 23.81 13 3 1 1 0 0 26 1 1 0
Lake Helen Commissioner Zone 2 234 14.23 22 4 0 0 0 0 23 2 1 0
Lake Helen Commissioner Zone 4 250 15.41 21 4 0 0 0 0 23 2 0 0
New Smyrna Beach Mayor 5833 28.24 11 2 1 1 0 0 31 2 1 0
New Smyrna Beach Commissioner Zone 4 5489 28.48 11 2 1 1 0 0 31 2 1 0
Orange City Mayor Orange City 1627 28.75 11 2 2 2 0 0 32 2 0 0
Ormond Beach Mayor Ormond Beach 1935 7.64 43 2 5 4 0 0 115 8 2 0
Ormond Beach Commissioner Zone 1 561 8.08 41 1 1 0 0 30 2 1 0
Ormond Beach Commissioner Zone 2 749 15.30 22 3 2 1 0 0 32 2 0 0
Ormond Beach Commissioner Zone 4 959 16.50 20 3 1 1 0 0 22 2 1 0
Pierson Council Seat 5 7 1.41 254 1 1 0 0 16 1 1 0
Edgewater City Council District 4 3831 30.37 11 2 3 1 0 0 43 2 2 0
Amendment 1 - Citzenship Requirement 181079 61.17 4 1 74 29 2 0 836 48 38 0
Amendment 2 - Minimum Wage 38380 12.91 23 1 74 29 1 0 836 48 42 0
Amendment 3 - Primary Elections 3021 1.05 310 2 74 29 1 0 836 48 30 0
Amendment 4 - Apprl Const. Amendment 224 0.08 4195 74 29 2 0 836 48 23 0
Amendment 5 - Homestead Property Taxes 113669 40.57 7 1 74 29 2 0 836 48 28 0
Amendment 6 - Ad Valorem Tax Discount 197894 68.72 4 1 74 29 2 0 836 48 30 0
Volusia ECHO 126655 44.41 6 1 74 29 0 0 836 48 26 0
Volusia Forever 145345 50.72 5 1 74 29 2 0 836 48 29 0
DeBary Ref #1 - Base Salary 739 5.95 54 3 1 3 0 9 1 2 0
DeBary Ref #2 - Map of City 1694 13.88 23 3 1 0 0 9 1 2 0
DeBary Ref #3 - Election/Charter Dates 4095 34.26 9 1 3 1 0 0 9 1 1 0
DeBary Ref #4 - Budget Extension 20 0.17 2047 3 1 0 0 9 1 1 0
DeBary Ref #5 - Council Forfeiture 3746 32.97 10 1 3 1 0 0 9 1 1 0
DeBary Ref #6 - Definition/Meetings 3527 30.33 11 1 3 1 0 0 9 1 1 0
DeBary Ref #7 - Terms of Office 2213 18.38 17 3 1 0 0 9 1 1 0
NSB Charter Amend - Revised Charter 8345 40.18 7 1 1 1 0 4 1 4 0
Edgewater Amend 1 10422 76.78 3 1 2 1 0 0 8 1 1 0
Edgewater Amend 2 4265 32.56 9 1 2 1 0 0 8 1 2 0
Edgewater Amend 3 1409 11.18 30 2 1 1 0 8 1 1 0
Edgewater Amend 4 6731 51.57 5 1 2 1 1 0 8 1 0 0
Edgewater Amend 5 2543 19.77 16 2 1 0 0 8 1 1 0
Edgewater Amend 6 6543 50.49 6 1 2 1 0 0 8 1 1 0
Edgewater Amend 7 4665 36.00 8 1 2 1 0 0 8 1 0 0
Edgewater Amend 8 4486 34.59 9 1 2 1 0 0 8 1 1 0
Edgewater Amend 9 2418 18.71 17 2 1 0 0 8 1 1 0